Vermonters Cite Cost Pressures as a Major Reason They May Leave, UNH Survey Finds

The same report suggests the strain is shaping long-term decisions for many residents.

Affordability continues to weigh heavily on how people in Vermont judge life in the state, according to new data from the University of New Hampshire’s States of Opinion project released July 7. The survey found that only 13 percent of respondents described Vermont as affordable, while 86 percent said it is not, a share that rose 6 percent from 2024.

The same report suggests the strain is shaping long-term decisions for many residents. Four in 10 Vermonters said they expect to move out of the state within the next five years, an increase of 8 percent since 2024. Younger adults stood out as the most mobile group, with nearly two-thirds of respondents ages 18 to 34 saying they were very or somewhat likely to leave in that period. By comparison, 24 percent of people 65 and older said the same.

Even when looking at longer-term plans, the age gap remained wide. Among those ages 18 to 34, 60 percent said they would definitely or probably relocate from Vermont at some point, while just 17 percent of those 65 and older said they would consider moving during their lifetime.

Housing prices, day-to-day expenses, and taxes were the main reasons given by those thinking about leaving. Among respondents who said they were likely to move within five years, 61 percent pointed to cheaper housing or lower living costs, 50 percent mentioned taxes, and 36 percent said they were seeking a different political and social climate.

Views of Vermont also differed by region. Chittenden County residents gave the state the strongest marks, with 69 percent rating it very good or good overall. Central Vermont followed at 62 percent, and Southern Vermont came in at 65 percent positive, though fewer people there chose the very good option. Northern counties had the weakest results, with 49 percent calling Vermont a good or very good place to live and 50 percent rating it fair, poor or very poor.

The survey arrives as housing remains one of the state’s most persistent problems. Over the past 10 years, median home prices have climbed 68.7 percent, or $160,483, while median household income has risen 49.1 percent. Vermont Housing Finance Agency figures also show that construction has not kept pace with need. The state produced just over 1,500 new housing units last year, after topping a little above 3,000 in 2024. Over the past five years, the average has been 2,307 units annually, far below the 8,237 units per year needed from 2025 to 2030 under VHFA targets for the Department of Housing and Community Development.

VHFA Research and Community Relations Director Leslie Black-Plumeau said home values are still moving upward, leaving little sign of relief for buyers. She noted that in June 2026, the statewide median home price was 6 percent higher than a year earlier and said affordability remains poor when compared with incomes. She added that a healthy sales-price-to-income ratio is generally around three. In 2024, Vermont’s median single-family home sale price-to-median household income ratio was 4.6.

Black-Plumeau also said the shortage of supply makes other problems worse and pointed to the long-running rent burden on low-income Vermonters. She said low wages relative to rents are tied to several forces, including conditions in the job market.

Taxes remain another source of frustration. Education property taxes have increased by more than 40 percent over the past five years, even though student enrollment declined during that time, according to the Vermont Department of Taxes. Healthcare costs also continue to hit household budgets hard, with residents spending almost 20 percent of their median monthly income on health care.

In response to those pressures, Governor Phil Scott signed Executive Order 05-26 on July 8. The order directs executive agencies and departments to use current authority to push changes including updating health insurance rules, seeking a federal reinsurance waiver, examining association health plans and small-business coverage, reviewing tax incentives for employer-sponsored plans, and urging the Green Mountain Care Board to move ahead with pricing changes aimed at lowering costs.

At a Wednesday news conference, Phil Scott said affordability is the top concern for Vermonters and argued that attracting workers and helping small businesses will require policy changes that modernize existing approaches and reduce costs for future generations.